mercoledì 1 agosto 2012

The debt's crisis has just started


After the financial meltdown of the last 5 years, debt arose to a weigthted average of 417 percent of GDP, from 381 per cent in june 2007 in 11 of the major economies under the market analysis.
In UK, US, Germany, Japan,  Canada, Italy, Greece , France, Ireland, Spain and Portugal the ratio of total debt to GDP is now higher than it was in 2007.
Interest rates are dangerously low, government paper yelds too little, geopolitics is out of control in places like Syria, Iran, and North Korea and China is temporarly slowing down.

The delevereging has not even started yet, and the world 's crisis has not begun either.

It will take a minimum of ten yers to lower the debt's level, at minum to  150 per cent of the GDP in most countries, an acceptable level.

The whole doctrine of "too big to fail ", as written before in this blog, is a fraud and a deception to keep people in a modern version of being trapped in a debtor's prison, where they are basically enslaved: the solution is let the banks go broke.

Inflation and monetization of the debt is the easier way to get out from the trap, but the way is not easy at all, because there is no magic bullet and because lowering rate in an ambient of currencies's wars is not an option, having lost his utility, and the rates are now very low: so this option is now not an option (of lowering rates).

History suggests that lowering the debt, more than 10 percentage points a year, is a hard task, without social and political unrests.

The house of cards is build on the base "that American dollar is the -world 's reserve currency- meaning that United States could print seemingly unlimited amounts of dollars and then always find buyers and holders of them".

Sources/ bibliography : Jamil Baz, Financial Times
                                     Crosscurrents newsletters , Alan M.  Newman